You may remember Storm Caetano - it was an unusually early strong polar low-pressure system that barrelled eastwards across France from Brittany to the northern Alps on November 20th and 21st.
It left some 200,000 homes without power for several hours, caused chaos on affected roads, and covered many northern and central areas in a carpet of snow.
READ ALSO Thousands without electricity as storms and snow hit France
Caetano was a pretty dramatic if short-lived reminder that winter’s coming. Its trajectory created a strong contrast between the cold air north of the Loire and rapid warming coming from the southwest, creating the perfect conditions for an ‘exceptional’ weather event.
But what are the chances that it also means we’ll get a long-awaited white Christmas?
First things first: Obviously the peaks of the Alps and France’s other mountain ranges can expect snow – some ski resorts have already opened, while more are expected to start welcoming visitors in early December.
Forecasts that look more than a few days ahead are notoriously unreliable, but the short answer is that a white Christmas in France, outside the usual areas, is … unlikely.
This is not quite the wild, aimless, punt that you might think.
Although specific weather conditions for the final weeks of December are way beyond the prediction capabilities of even a weather supercomputer, a number of longer-range weather models are already suggesting that the last month of 2024 could be warmer and drier than average.
Weather trends modelled by the American GFS and European ECMWF forecasting computers predict a warmer-than-average month on the whole. Northern France, in particular, could see higher-than-normal temperatures.
The American GFS forecasts average rainfall for the time of year. Depending on temperatures at the time, this may fall as snow – even at lower levels. The European model agrees with its American counterparts' forecast of a wetter start to the month and a drier finish.
Chaîne Météo agrees with the models. “The coming weeks are likely to be mild and relatively dry”, it has said, predicting temperatures “slightly above seasonal averages” at the start of the month, with what it describes as “temporary” instability.
Until the start of the Christmas holidays, Chaîne Météo has forecast “calm weather” and temperatures fluctuating between normal and slightly warmer than normal. It suggests that seasonal averages, based on the last 30 years, suggest temperatures up to 1C above normal for the time of year.
None of this, however, entirely rules out the prospect of snow at Christmas. Caetano – remember him? – demonstrates this perfectly.
Early models for November predicted that it would be drier and warmer than normal, and it looks very much like those models will be proved entirely accurate.
But that did not prevent us from experiencing three days that were significantly cooler than average, accompanied by significant snowfall at relatively low levels.
As Météo-Villes points out it is, “impossible to forecast a snow event in the lowlands more than a few days in advance. It’s generally a local phenomenon that rarely lasts”.
According national forecaster Météo France, snowfall at Christmas is an unusual event across most of France. And while it’s still too early for them to make any definitive festive weather predictions, another mostly snow-free season seems to be the trend consensus.
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