Réseau Action Climat has compiled an exhaustive panorama of the consequences of climate change by 2050 in each of France's regions in a new report, France facing climate change: all regions impacted.
Climate change is not uniform – it does not mean everywhere will simply get hotter.
From temperatures exceeding 45C to mega-forest fires in the south, to glaciers melting in the mountains, coastal areas getting battered by stronger seas, and more flooding in the north, the respected NGO’s report brings climate change close to everyone’s home by examining its impact on a region-by-region basis.
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (including Lyon and the Alps)
Between 1963 and 2022, average summer temperatures in the south-eastern Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes have risen 3.3C, and that trend is set to continue. By 2050, more than 5.5 million people living in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes – that’s 68 percent of the region’s population will endure more than 20 ‘abnormally hot days’ during the summer months, compared to 14 percent across the whole of France in 2024.
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Glaciers in the Alps and Massif Central are expected to vanish. The Institute of Environmental Geosciences forecasts that the Grande-Motte glacier in Tignes (Savoie), emblem of “four-season” skiing in France, has lost two thirds of its volume since 1998 and will disappear entirely before 2090 – perhaps even by 2060.
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (including Dijon, Besançon and Burgundy vineyards)
Drought will be the key issue in the region immediately to the north of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes – meteorological droughts of more than 15 consecutive days without precipitation were recorded every other year between 1991 and 2019.
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As the region makes up nearly 10 percent of France’s farmland (and a huge part of its wine-growing area) drought – which, the report warned, would be accompanied by more frequent and longer heatwaves – will have a serious impact on the local and national economy.
Meanwhile, rising temperatures also increase the risk of crop frost. Flowering is occurring earlier and earlier, exposing future fruits to late frosts. The developing fruit is then slowed in its growth, or even destroyed, having a serious impact on wine production.
Brittany (including Rennes, Brest and Saint-Malo)
Brittany boasts a third of the coastline of metropolitan France - which means, in turn, it enjoys fewer temperature extremes than most of the rest of the country and is rapidly becoming one of the cooler places to escape to in the summer.
But climate change means significant risks to coastal areas, starting with the rise in sea level.
In Brest, the sea level has risen by 20cm since around 1850, with around 13cm coming since 1970, the report said. And seas are rising faster than ever – forecasts predict a rise of 1m by the end of the century and 2m shortly after 2150 at current rates. That would wipe out the popular tourist destination of Saint-Malo.
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Inland, drought quickly becomes the major issue. For geological reasons, the region relies on rivers and reservoirs for water, which are struggling to recharge in drier winters, as the Brittany climate increasingly tends towards the Mediterranean.
Centre-Val de Loire (including Tours, Orléans and the Loire Valley)
Wetter winters, and much drier summers are expected in the historic Centre-Val de Loire. That means, in turn, more periods of low water in the summer – which, because it will also be warmer – means hotter water, which will affect wildlife, while also affecting groundwater reserves for drinking and agriculture.
Experts also expect more forest fires, and an increase in what’s known as clay shrinkage-swelling – which, pretty much means exactly what it says. As clay dries out, it shrinks, and it expands when it gets wet: which can be bad news for buildings sitting on top of it, including many of the beautiful and historic Loire Valley châteaux.
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Since 2006, insurance claims for properties damaged by the continued shrinking and expansion of the clay soils they’re built on have gone up by 145 percent in France.
Corsica
The mountainous island of Corsica in the Mediterranean faces it all; more storms off the sea in winter, bringing coastal erosion; higher temperatures, even at altitude (temperatures have jumped by 5.2C at 2000m since 1970); summer droughts; more extreme weather events including flooding; and finally wildfires and rising sea levels.
Grand Est (including Strasbourg, Reims and Nancy)
The report strongly suggests that the summer of 2022 - which had 33 abnormally hot days in the Grand Est region and is currently considered exceptional - will become the norm. In the Vosges mountains, meanwhile, the number of hot days could jump to 40 as soon as 2050.
Drought is also predicted – and longer, more pronounced periods of low water in summer, hitting all areas of the region’s economy and environment. Grand Est is the 4th most wooded region in France, and the second largest producer of wood - deforestation cause by dieback and increasing forest fires is a serious risk, the report warned.
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Hauts-de-France (including Calais, Lille and Amiens)
Due to its high population density, its socio-economic characteristics and its long coastal strip, the Hauts-de-France region is one of the most exposed to climatic hazards.
Flooding in both coastal and inland areas is a growing problem – it currently threatens .2 million inhabitants in six out of 10 towns and villages. Beyond the damage caused, flooding has repercussions on access to clean water and electricity, water quality, infrastructure and health.
Total rainfall is increasing in the region: for example, Boulogne-sur-Mer has seen an increase of 29.3mm per decade since the 1950s – but it arrives over a shorter period, with summers increasingly long and dry, meaning that rain is more likely in extreme episodes, risking soil saturation, while summer droughts lead to soil degradation.
Île-de-France (greater Paris region)
The report introduces its chapter on Île-de-France with the hopeful headline ‘Unliveable in summer?’. And the first line reads: “30 days of heatwave per year, temperature peaks of up to 50C, and all the consequences that this implies…”
Because it is a highly urbanised environment the Île-de-France region is particularly vulnerable to the consequences of climate change linked to heat. Temperatures have in fact already increased by 2C on average since the middle of the 20th century, and are expected to reach an additional +0.5 to +1C by 2050 without any reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
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Without climate change, studies show that the July 2019 heatwave – during which the record temperature of 42.6C was recorded in Paris – would have had only a 1 in 20,000 chance of occurring. In statistical terms, it can be said that this heatwave was virtually impossible without human influence.
City authorities certainly take the risk seriously and have already begun modelling how they will cope with a 50C day.
Normandy (including Rouen, Mont Saint Michel and Caen)
Rising sea levels and maritime flooding are the major concerns in north-western Normandy. Higher-than-normal tides, which currently happen three or four times per year, could occur more than 60 times a year as sea levels continue to rise in the Channel.
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Meanwhile, agriculture in France’s largest farming region will be hit by rising temperatures and lower summer rainfall, with river flows falling by as much as 30 percent by 2100; and more coastal areas are facing increased salinisation of water, as lower river water levels combine with rising seas.
Some areas such as the Orne and Aure valleys and the west coast of Cotentin are already impacted by this phenomenon, which is expected to worsen with the rise in sea levels.
Nouvelle-Aquitaine (including Bordeaux, La Rochelle and Limoges)
The massive forest fires in Nouvelle-Aquitaine in 2022 were a warning from nature. Lower year-round rainfall, higher summer temperatures lead to droughts, which drastically increase the risk of wildfires.
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Water deficits were a problem across most of the region in 2018, 2019 and 2021. But 2022 saw temperatures soar past 30C on 70 summer days, during a months-long drought that started in Spring. Nearly 2,000 towns and villages in the south-east of the region struggled with drinking water supplies.
The report warned this could become the norm if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory, leading to rising tensions over water for personal, agricultural and industrial use. Plans for giant underground water storage basins in the region have already provoked violent protests.
Occitanie (including Toulouse, Montpellier and the Pyrenees)
Occitanie is already the region of France most affected by the repercussions of climate change – three of the four départements most affected by floods, storms and drought disasters between 1989 and 2018 are Tarn-et-Garonne, Aude and Tarn.
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Meanwhile, longer and more intense droughts are forecast in the south-western region. For a wine-growing and large-scale cereal crop region, the consequences are set to be devastating. The viticulture sector is already experiencing reduced yields, changes in the characteristics of wine – alcohol content has increased from 11 percent to 14 percent since the 1980s – and crop losses due to extreme weather events.
Furthermore, according to a WWF study, if global warming reaches +2C, natural snow cover would only be sufficient for three ski resorts in the entire Pyrenees massif.
Pays-de-la-Loire (including Nantes, Angers and Le Mans)
The environmental future of Pays-de-la-Loire in three words? Droughts and floods.
The 450km of Atlantic coastline in Pays-de-la-Loire is exposed to rising sea levels caused by the melting of glaciers and thermal expansion due to rising ocean temperatures. The rate is accelerating and estimated at 10 m in Saint-Nazaire between 1980 and 2019.
In the absence of climate policies, sea levels could rise by 76 cm compared to the end of the century. Damage linked to flooding by submersion is expected to more than double in Vendée and Loire-Atlantique by 2050.
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Meanwhile, the risk of forest fires is going up, and could increase by 40 percent over most of the Loire region if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase.
Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (including Marseille, Avignon and the French Riviera)
The last seven years (2017-2023) are the hottest ever recorded in the region – with 2022 the warmest year on record - and this trend is likely to continue.
Temperatures in PACA are now rising faster than anywhere else in France, with the average set to increase a further +1.6C to +2.2C by 2050, with the scale of drought increasing. Rainfall has fallen 45 percent in the summer and 30 percent in the winter compared to 1960.
Following on from this, an increase in damaging spring and autumn thunderstorms, known as épisodes méditerranéens, when a large amount of rain is dumped in a small area in a very short period of time. Right now there are as many as six of these episodes a year, compared to two or three in the middle of the 20th century.
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The report warns these storms will become increasingly intense and will affect larger areas.
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