Beaches, cities and skiing: How the climate crisis will change French tourism

Since 2017 France has been the world's number 1 destination for tourists, attracting on average 90 million visitors a year, and it held onto that title in 2023.

However, climate change is already beginning to change the landscape. During the summer of 2023, France saw soaring temperatures and wildfires around the Mediterranean, leading many tourists to cancel their holidays. Although France has not, so far, been as badly affected as Greece or Italy, the long-term trends are for temperatures to rise and wildfires to become more common.

According to a recent note from credit-rating agency Moody's, "heatwaves may reduce Southern Europe's attractiveness as a tourist destination in the longer term or at the very least reduce demand in summer, which will have negative economic consequences given the importance of the sector."

Jean-François Rial, who heads French travel firm Voyageurs du Monde, agreed that "global warming is going to render some destinations less and less visitable. The whole of the Mediterranean is concerned and yet it is the main destination of European travellers."

So does this mean a mortal blow for the French tourist industry - which accounts for 10 percent of the country's GDP?

North/south

France is the 'inbetweener' country of Europe, having long, hot summers on its southern coastline and cooler weather in the north of the country, close to the Belgian border and English Channel.

Countries like Spain and Greece rely heavily on 'sun-seeker' beach-based tourism, but although the French Riviera is undoubtedly popular - attracting 11 million tourists a year who generate €7 billion - it is not the only thing that France has to offer.

Hiking or cycling holidays in central France or Brittany, châteaux tours in the Loire Valley, vineyard experiences in Champagne, city breaks in Paris or Lyon are just some of France's many holiday options.

Seasons

France also benefits from being an all-year-round tourist destination.

Around two thirds of French tourism happens in the summer season - June, July, August and September - while the remaining one third is fairly evenly distributed through autumn, winter and spring. 

Skiing and winter sports in the Alps, Pyrenees and Jura mountains attract around 40 million people a year (although climate change is bringing its own problems to French ski resorts which find it increasingly difficult to guarantee snow).

The mild climate of the south is attractive for winter breaks while Paris sees big spikes in tourism over Christmas and New Year and again in February (Valentine's Day). 

Domestic tourism

That often-quoted figure of tourism accounting for 10 percent of France's GDP hides an important caveat - almost 70 percent of that is domestic tourism, ie French people going on holiday to a different part of France.

There is a strong cultural tradition of a month-long holiday over the summer for French people - but for the majority that involved decamping to France's seaside or mountains. In total around 60 percent of French people take their holidays in France.

Outside of les grandes vaccances every school holiday and public holiday or 'pont' weekend sees a huge movement of French people to the country's holiday spots.

And when everyone else is working there are always pensioners propping up tourist profits - around 25 percent of the French population is retired, many of them in excellent health thanks to a combination of early retirement and great healthcare and keen to enjoy their retirement with many trips away. 

Changing patterns

So while most tourism experts are not too gloomy about the future of the industry in France, many predict that we will instead see changing travel patterns.

Didier Arino, who heads the Protourisme travel consultancy in France, told AFP that climate change will force tourism to evolve.

"We must conceive our cities somewhat differently, our resorts, the range of activities on offer."

Rial, of Voyageur du Monde, agreed, adding "that could perhaps be a chance to reduce 'over-tourism'...  losing some clients in summertime but gaining more in the other nine months of the year."

Some changes in travel patterns are already apparent within France.

Winter on the Riviera - with temperatures regularly topping 40C along the south coast and predicted to get higher, the Riviera in summer will likely be simply too hot for many during June, July and August.

But Riviera summer tourism is a relatively recent phenomenon. The town of Nice was for decades a favourite winter spot for English visitors (referenced in the town's Promenade des Anglais) and it only became a summer spot from the 1920s onwards, in many cases popularised by Americans. 

Whether it's a winter break or a beach holiday in the spring or autumn, Riviera towns are already preparing for the lengthening of the holiday season - and in fact only 53 percent of Riviera tourism happens in the 'peak' months of July and August, according to Côte d'Azur France. 

Summer in the mountains -  France's ski resorts have been grappling with the effects of the climate crisis for decades, with many lower-altitude ski stations closing entirely and others enduring shorter and more unreliable seasons as temperatures climb and snow melts.

In an effort to save their livelihoods, tourist towns in the Alps and Pyrenees are expanding their offering and marketing themselves aggressively as all-year-round destinations with non-ski activities including hiking, cycling, climbing, swimming and extreme sports such as paragliding.

With their high altitude and cool breezes, the mountains also offer a cooler, fresher alternative to French cities during the summer.

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Rain-seeking in Brittany - within France, the region of Brittany has the reputation of being frequently shrouded in rain clouds. While this is a slight exaggeration it's true that Brittany does have higher rainfall than most of France and is - along with neighbouring Normandy - significantly cooler.

As people flee the scorching temperatures of the south, Brittany and Normandy look like increasingly attractive destinations. This trend can already be seen with Brittany showing the highest tourist growth in France. When asked, visitors listed cost (it's much cheaper than the Riviera) and the weather as their main reasons for coming. 

Winter in Paris - many of those in the know (the locals) already leave Paris in August when the temperatures soar, but summer is still the peak time for tourists to visit. 

Paris can already get very hot in the summer (the record is at 42.9C) and the problem is confounded by the fact that the city is simply not designed for heat. 

But it is set to get much hotter - perhaps up to 50C by 2050 - making summer tourism simply impossible. It seems likely that those August queues outside the Louvre will gradually diminish and be replaced by visitor peaks in the spring, autumn and winter.