Covid risk calculator: Going to a restaurant in Paris can carry up to 98 percent chance

The Local France
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Covid risk calculator: Going to a restaurant in Paris can carry up to 98 percent chance
A general view shows the diner room of French brasserie Bouillon Chartier, on July 24, 2013 in Paris. AFP PHOTO / FRED DUFOUR (Photo by FRED DUFOUR / AFP)

Entering an enclosed space such as a restaurant in Paris with more than 50 people inside carries a 98 percent risk that someone will be positive for Covid, according to the online calculator from the data scientists behind Covidtracker.


As France reports more than 400,000 new cases in a single day, the data scientists behind the French Covidtracker site - which offers visual models and analysis of the French government's data on Covid cases and vaccinations - have created an online tool that allows you to calculate your risk according to the area and gathering size.

The calculator works off the incidence rate - number of reported positive cases per 100,000 people - for each département and calculates the risk based on the number of people in an enclosed space.

This could include parties or events but also indoor restaurants and bars based on the total number of people - customers and staff - in the room.

ANALYSIS: How dangerous are France's sky-high Covid rates?

Attending an event of 50 people or more in Paris has a 98 percent risk of there being at least one positive person. Screenshot: Covidtracker

Being in the same room obviously doesn't mean that you will definitely catch Covid, but can result in an alert as a 'contact case' that requires testing or isolation, depending on vaccination status.

EXPLAINED What to do if you test positive or are a contact case


In Paris, where the incidence rate is currently 3,538 cases per 100,000 people, being in a room with 50 or more people carries a 98 percent risk that one of those people will be positive.

Even a room with 30 or more people - the capacity of all but the smallest bars and cafés - carries an 89 percent risk of a positive case.

Find the calculator HERE.

Across France, the risk of being close to a positive case is 85 percent in a room with 30 or more people. Although there are regional variations, even the more sparsely populated rural areas of France generally show around a 65 percent risk of being a contact case if you are in a room with 30 or more people.

The risk rate for Charente in a room with 30 or more people. Source:

France is still reporting extremely high numbers of daily cases as the Omicron wave continues to hit, with 464,769 new cases recorded in the last 24 hours.

The daily average case rate stands at 293,671 new cases per day, an 8 percent increase on the previous week, despite the number of tests being taken daily falling by 18 percent. France saw a huge spike in testing over the Christmas holiday as people were encouraged to take a test before travelling or visiting relatives.


Thanks to the high vaccination rate, the majority of adults who do contract Covid report mild symptoms, and hospitalisations are rising much more slowly than case rates - although they are still rising, with 26,526 patients in hospital with Covid, 3881 of them in intensive care. Across the country, 80 percent of Covid patients in intensive care are unvaccinated.

But the high case rates are still causing problems for the country as tens of thousands of people are forced to isolate while testing positive, causing staff shortages. 



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