The latest birth rates add weight to a study by the Institut national des études démographiques (Ined), which found that French people are becoming less inclined to have children, raising further concerns about how the country could care for an ageing population.
Ined analysed responses to a survey of 12,800 people aged between 18 and 79 that was conducted in 2024. It found that the average ‘ideal number of children’ per family was 2.3, compared to 2.7 in 1998.
The researchers found a gap between the number of children desired and the actual size of families. Women born in 1980 wanted an average of 2.5 children in 2005, but only had 2.1.
However, in 2024, the number of children desired by young people under the age of 30 had fallen to between 1.9 and 2.
That overall average included differences in family-size preferences by age. In 2024, 65 percent of 18 to 49-year-olds surveyed considered that the ideal number of children per family was two, compared to just 47 percent in 1998.
Le nombre d'enfants "souhaités", beaucoup plus concret pour chaque famille, a beaucoup évolué aussi : beaucoup plus d'hommes et de femmes répondent 0 ou 1 qu'en 2005, et à l'inverse beaucoup moins répondent 3 ou au moins 4 (comparez les barres bleues et oranges). 6/10
— Nicolas Berrod (@nicolasberrod.bsky.social) July 9, 2025 at 11:25 AM
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More than a quarter of a century ago, half the population considered three or more children ‘ideal’, compared to 29 percent in 2024, the study, published in the journal Population et Sociétés, found.
Today, although the two-child family remains the norm, that figure is regarded as “a maximum rather than a minimum,” INED said.
“People prefer smaller families, and fertility is likely to decline,” sociologist Milan Bouchet-Valat, co-author of the study, told AFP.
The birth rate in France fell by seven percent in 2023 and two percent in 2024, Ined said. This fall, against a backdrop of an ageing population, will only make it more difficult to finance France’s social security system.
? La natalité continue de s'effondrer en France. 1 735 bébés sont nés chaque jour (en moyenne) en mai, -4,9 % par rapport à mai 2024. 33e mois consécutif de baisse d'un mois à l'autre sur un an ! 2025 devrait être l'année avec le moins de naissances depuis 1945, devant 2024.
— Nicolas Berrod (@nicolasberrod.bsky.social) June 28, 2025 at 11:03 AM
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The decline in fertility intentions can be observed in all social groups, regardless of background, income, level of education, and gender, according to Ined.
Between 2014 and 2024, the fertility rate in France fell from 2.0 to 1.6 children per woman. A birth rate of less than 2.1 indicates a population in decline - unless immigration tops up the population.
And researchers suggest that this may be due to greater consideration of equality within couples.
In 2024, respondents who have an egalitarian view of the societal roles want fewer children than those with more traditional opinions, whereas this opinion had no effect in 2005.
Men with more traditional gender roles want more children, “anticipating less of an impact on their careers,” than ‘egalitarian’ men, “who probably realise how much parental investment a child will require,” Bouchet-Valat said.
The researchers also examined the effects of concerns about the future: 35 percent of people who are “very concerned about future generations” want to have “one or more children,” compared to 46 percent of those who are less concerned.
Aurore Bergé, Minister for Gender Equality, said that “the price of professional inequality between women and men accentuates the fear of having children”.
“What we need is to guarantee women complete freedom to have or not to have children (...) and enable them to welcome them into the best possible conditions,” she said on France 2 on Wednesday.
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