France is currently experiencing its first heatwave of the summer, with temperatures expected to peak over the weekend - but what can we expect for the rest of the summer?
The French weather forecaster Météo France's overall prediction for the summer is that temperatures will be above seasonal averages.
We’re most likely in for a “warmer than normal” summer in France in 2025, particularly in Corsica, Météo-France said.
According to the numbers, there’s a 50 percent chance that June, July and August will see above average temperatures, compared to a 20 percent chance that the next three months will be cooler than usual.
They add, however, that heatwaves cannot be forecast more than a week in advance, and neither can precise temperatures.
It's also worth noting that France is a big country and has a wide variation in weather between the beaches of northern Brittany and the plains of the southern départements like Var and Hérault (which currently holds the record for France's hottest ever recorded temperature).
Likewise, cooler temperatures are found at higher elevations and France has a good selection of mountains.
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With all those caveats in mind - what sort of temperatures are we talking about?
According to Météo France the average temperature for the summer (which they count as June 1st - August 31st) is 20.4C. However, that's a long term average running from 1900 and temperatures are steadily rising - the five hottest summers recorded since 1900 are; 2003, 2022, 2018, 2023 and 2019.
The heatwave of 2003 was extremely severe and is estimated to have caused at least 15,000 deaths. The summer of 2019 had heatwaves that were hotter but shorter than 2003 and that - coupled with improvements in local authority planning and emergency response - saw a much lower death toll.
There are, however, wide regional variations - in a southern département such as Var, the average summer temperature is 29C, while in Brittany's Morbihan it's 18C. Bear in mind also that those are averages not peaks - throughout the south of France it's not unusual for the mercury to climb to 40C at least once during the summer.
If we're talking about records, the hottest temperature ever recorded in France is 46C, recorded in Veragues in Hérault, during the intense heatwaves of 2019. That year multiple local records fell, including in Paris which recorded its own hottest-ever temperature - 42.6C.
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As to whether those records will be broken this year - experts say it's too early to tell.
The unscientific among us note that the summers of 2024 and 2023 were quite cool - but that doesn't mean 2025 will be especially scorching. Thinking that it will be is the sort of logic that leads you to lose your shirt in the casino.
When it comes to longer term predictions, however, there are some people who are willing to get specific - such as the prediction that Paris will see temperatures of 50C by 2050. The city has already begun emergency planning exercises to deal with that sort of heat, and work including upgrading the electrical system so that scorching temperatures are not accompanied by blackouts.
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