ANALYSIS: When will French pension strikes be over?
France's battle over pension reform is ongoing, but a crucial deadline this week, together with the latest turnout figures, gives some clues on what to expect for continued strikes and disruption.
Protests, rolling strikes and mass 'days of action' have been ongoing in France since January 19th.
With sectors including oil refineries, waste collection, flights and public transport services, having been impacted for weeks, many are wondering when the mobilisation will come to an end.
Here is what to expect;
Next strike
A few unions continue with rolling strikes - among them air traffic controllers - but most action is now concentrated in single-day actions.
The next one of these is planned for Thursday, April 13th.
However, these strikes have become steadily less disruptive as time has gone on - the normal pattern for long-running strikes as workers (who are not paid while on strike) gradually return to work.
Attendance at the marches and demos that took place across France also fell - according to figures from France's ministry of interior, about 570,000 people took to the streets, a drop from the 740,000 counted on March 28th.
Union leaders acknowledged a decrease in protest participation as well. The leader of the CFDT union, Laurent Berger, recognised the decrease, but simultaneously stressed that mobilisations "remain important at this stage".
Other sectors have seen strike action begin to drop too. Paris waste collectors ended their three week strike on March 29th. The CGT union representing waste workers said that this was because there were "almost no more strikers" because "financially speaking, a strike is very very expensive".
A new rolling strike for Paris waste collectors is set to start on April 13th, but it is likely similar issues regarding financial strain will remain a concern for workers. As such, it is not clear at this point how disruptive the new waste strike will be. The previous one led to over 10,000 tonnes of uncollected waste being left on the capital's streets.
Vote from the Constitutional Council
The April 13th strike was called for the day before France's Constitutional Council is due to announce its findings regarding the fate of pension reform.
The council members have the power to either approve it entirely, order the government to make changes or strike it down completely, although this last option is unusual.
Expert in French electoral law Jean-Pierre Camby, associate professor at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, told Le Monde that "the opposition's arguments may not be sufficient" for the bill to be entirely censured by the Council, particularly due to the arguments having a political nature to them.
"The application of these constitutional texts cannot lead to a decision of unconstitutionality based on procedure (...) the arguments of general scope on the clarity and sincerity of the debate put forward by the oppositions are more of a political nature, which the Council habitually rejects, even if the classic conditions of the debate are altered", the law expert told Le Monde.
Camby also explained in his interview with Le Monde that "a total censure by the Constitutional Council could appear as an open declaration of war against the executive branch and the Sénat majority."
The council must also approve or block calls for a public referendum (RIP) on pension reform. If they approve that, the referendum cannot take place before summer 2024.
What next after April 14th?
Obviously, the next stage depends on what the Council announces, but unions have begun making statements about how they will respond. The new secretary general for the hardline CGT, Sophie Binet, said: "Whatever happens, the mobilisation will continue in one form or another".
The head of the more moderate CFDT union Laurent Berger said "there is no question about challenging the legitimacy of the Constitutional Council". If the bill is approved, Berger said that "we will recognise its decision, but that doesn't mean we will stop saying what we think about this reform. There are quite a few possible scenarios and we will advise accordingly."
Berger is also reported, according to Le Figaro, to have said, that: "Those who believe we will have mobilisations every two days once the law is enacted are living in a dream".
But more radical unions have differed in their tone. The head of the Force Ouvrière union said that "the movement will continue, as we have already done against other laws that have passed", and the head of the Solidaires union, Murielle Guilbert, said "the Constitutional Council is not the alpha and omega".
More strikes?
As such, it is likely that some mobilisations would continue to be held after April 14th, but French strikes are only really effective if all eight of the union federations get involved. Isolated strikes called by a single union tend not to cause much disruption, and as noted above participation in the strikes has fallen quite dramatically in recent weeks.
Rolling strikes in some sectors could also continue after the results are released on Friday. In particular, waste workers in the nation's capital are expected to continue striking, though disruption levels are not yet clear.
Blockades by oil refineries have affected access to petrol and diesel across the country, but the impacts have begun to decrease. Nationally, about 7.3 percent of service stations in France were missing at least one type of fuel on Thursday, according to Le Figaro. In total, 23 of France's 96 mainland départements had at least 10 percent of their stations experiencing shortages.
The effects have been concentrated in certain areas, originally in the west and in the south of the country, and more recently in and around the Paris region.
READ MORE: MAP: Where in France are blockades causing fuel shortages?
Next dates?
The general pattern so far has been that unions use the evening of a strike day to announce dates for the next action - we should therefore know more on April 13th or 14th - you can keep up with the latest announcements in our strike section HERE.
The government, meanwhile, says that it wants to bring the reform into law by September 1st, depending on Constitutional Council approval.
If, however, the Council approves the request for a referendum then the subject drags on. The complicated process for this type of referendum means that it could not take place before summer 2024, at the earliest.
EXPLAINED: Why the Council ruling could drag out pension reform battle for another 15 months
We could, therefore, still be talking about pension reform for at least another year . . .
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Protests, rolling strikes and mass 'days of action' have been ongoing in France since January 19th.
With sectors including oil refineries, waste collection, flights and public transport services, having been impacted for weeks, many are wondering when the mobilisation will come to an end.
Here is what to expect;
Next strike
A few unions continue with rolling strikes - among them air traffic controllers - but most action is now concentrated in single-day actions.
The next one of these is planned for Thursday, April 13th.
However, these strikes have become steadily less disruptive as time has gone on - the normal pattern for long-running strikes as workers (who are not paid while on strike) gradually return to work.
Attendance at the marches and demos that took place across France also fell - according to figures from France's ministry of interior, about 570,000 people took to the streets, a drop from the 740,000 counted on March 28th.
Union leaders acknowledged a decrease in protest participation as well. The leader of the CFDT union, Laurent Berger, recognised the decrease, but simultaneously stressed that mobilisations "remain important at this stage".
Other sectors have seen strike action begin to drop too. Paris waste collectors ended their three week strike on March 29th. The CGT union representing waste workers said that this was because there were "almost no more strikers" because "financially speaking, a strike is very very expensive".
A new rolling strike for Paris waste collectors is set to start on April 13th, but it is likely similar issues regarding financial strain will remain a concern for workers. As such, it is not clear at this point how disruptive the new waste strike will be. The previous one led to over 10,000 tonnes of uncollected waste being left on the capital's streets.
Vote from the Constitutional Council
The April 13th strike was called for the day before France's Constitutional Council is due to announce its findings regarding the fate of pension reform.
The council members have the power to either approve it entirely, order the government to make changes or strike it down completely, although this last option is unusual.
Expert in French electoral law Jean-Pierre Camby, associate professor at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, told Le Monde that "the opposition's arguments may not be sufficient" for the bill to be entirely censured by the Council, particularly due to the arguments having a political nature to them.
"The application of these constitutional texts cannot lead to a decision of unconstitutionality based on procedure (...) the arguments of general scope on the clarity and sincerity of the debate put forward by the oppositions are more of a political nature, which the Council habitually rejects, even if the classic conditions of the debate are altered", the law expert told Le Monde.
Camby also explained in his interview with Le Monde that "a total censure by the Constitutional Council could appear as an open declaration of war against the executive branch and the Sénat majority."
The council must also approve or block calls for a public referendum (RIP) on pension reform. If they approve that, the referendum cannot take place before summer 2024.
What next after April 14th?
Obviously, the next stage depends on what the Council announces, but unions have begun making statements about how they will respond. The new secretary general for the hardline CGT, Sophie Binet, said: "Whatever happens, the mobilisation will continue in one form or another".
The head of the more moderate CFDT union Laurent Berger said "there is no question about challenging the legitimacy of the Constitutional Council". If the bill is approved, Berger said that "we will recognise its decision, but that doesn't mean we will stop saying what we think about this reform. There are quite a few possible scenarios and we will advise accordingly."
Berger is also reported, according to Le Figaro, to have said, that: "Those who believe we will have mobilisations every two days once the law is enacted are living in a dream".
But more radical unions have differed in their tone. The head of the Force Ouvrière union said that "the movement will continue, as we have already done against other laws that have passed", and the head of the Solidaires union, Murielle Guilbert, said "the Constitutional Council is not the alpha and omega".
More strikes?
As such, it is likely that some mobilisations would continue to be held after April 14th, but French strikes are only really effective if all eight of the union federations get involved. Isolated strikes called by a single union tend not to cause much disruption, and as noted above participation in the strikes has fallen quite dramatically in recent weeks.
Rolling strikes in some sectors could also continue after the results are released on Friday. In particular, waste workers in the nation's capital are expected to continue striking, though disruption levels are not yet clear.
Blockades by oil refineries have affected access to petrol and diesel across the country, but the impacts have begun to decrease. Nationally, about 7.3 percent of service stations in France were missing at least one type of fuel on Thursday, according to Le Figaro. In total, 23 of France's 96 mainland départements had at least 10 percent of their stations experiencing shortages.
The effects have been concentrated in certain areas, originally in the west and in the south of the country, and more recently in and around the Paris region.
READ MORE: MAP: Where in France are blockades causing fuel shortages?
Next dates?
The general pattern so far has been that unions use the evening of a strike day to announce dates for the next action - we should therefore know more on April 13th or 14th - you can keep up with the latest announcements in our strike section HERE.
The government, meanwhile, says that it wants to bring the reform into law by September 1st, depending on Constitutional Council approval.
If, however, the Council approves the request for a referendum then the subject drags on. The complicated process for this type of referendum means that it could not take place before summer 2024, at the earliest.
EXPLAINED: Why the Council ruling could drag out pension reform battle for another 15 months
We could, therefore, still be talking about pension reform for at least another year . . .
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