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2022 FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Why do French presidents rarely get re-elected?

With the first round of the French presidential election fast approaching, we spoke to experts to find out whether French President Emmanuel Macron is at a disadvantage due to the fact that he is already in office.

Only four French presidents under the Fifth Republic have ever managed to win reelection
Only four French presidents under the Fifth Republic have ever managed to win reelection. We spoke to experts to find out why. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking to win re-election – making him the first president to do so in 20 years and only the fourth French leader to hold onto office since the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958. 

So is already being in power really a disadvantage for him?

What do the stats say? 

France has had eight presidents since the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958.

Only three of them managed to win re-election for a second term. Presidents are only permitted to hold two terms in office. 

However, only five presidents have ever tried to win re-election since 1958, meaning that the success rate for those seeking to do so is 60 percent. 

READ MORE What is the French Fifth Republic?

This statistic glosses over the fact that François Mitterand, who won re-election in 1988, spent significant periods of his mandate in cohabitation – a power-sharing agreement with a parliament dominated by his right-wing rivals who crushed him at the 1986 legislative elections. 

There’s also presidents who – like François Hollande – end up with such terrible poll ratings that they don’t even try for a second term.

Since the turn of the 21st Century, the only president to win re-election was Jacques Chirac back in 2002 – he too was forced into cohabitation, this time with left-wing opponents. 

“At elections in France, one political force is frequently taken over by another, if not at the presidential, then certainly at the legislative level,” said Émeric Bréhier – a former MP and director of the political observatory at the Jean Jaurès Foundation. 

LISTEN Could Marine Le Pen become the next French president?

Compared to other some other European countries, the re-election rate of French presidents is low. 

Since the first federal election in Germany since the end of the cold war in 1990, every single German chancellor has managed to hold power for at least one additional term. Spain meanwhile has had seven prime ministers since its 1976, one year after its transition to democracy – only one of them failed to stay in power for at least one additional term. 

In the United States, the vast majority presidents who are not assassinated or forced to resign (Nixon) have won a second term in office since the 1950s. Only George Bush Snr. and Donald Trump failed to do so. 

Disadvantages

French presidents face a number of challenges when running for a second term. 

“You are one person against everyone else. You will be targeted with arrows from the opposition on all sides,” said Bréhier. 

“If you take Macron: the left think he is on the right; the right think he is on the left; Mélenchon says he is not a man of the people; others treat him as a populist. The institutional position of the President means he will take blows everywhere.” 

READ MORE Could Marine Le Pen win the French presidential election?

Tristan Haute, an electoral sociologist at the University of Lille believes there are other underlying factors too.

“There is a mistrust towards politicians that is heightened in France compared to in other countries,” he said. 

“It is less to do with the history of the French Revolution than about our societal fracture. People have high expectations of politicians but don’t see change. In France, this frustration is articulated critically at the ballot box during elections and with the rise of extreme candidates.”  

Luc Rouban, a political scientist at Sciences Po said that the level of hatred among some sections of society towards Emmanuel Macron was “unprecedented” for any president in recent years, with many French voters viewing him as arrogant. 

“There is a lot of mistrust towards Macron,” he said. 

Is Macron likely to win? 

Despite the various disadvantages that come with running as an incumbent, most polls suggest Macron is likely to win the next French presidential election – although a hypothetical second-round race between him and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen appears to be narrowing. 

But Bréhier believes a Le Pen victory is not impossible. 

“There has been a breakdown of the traditional left-right divide in France, but the two traditional parties [le Parti socialiste and Les Républicains] are in a lamentable state. There are masses of voters supporting Macron and an opposition centred around Marine Le Pen but the rest is a complete mess, which makes it very difficult to read,” he said. 

READ MORE Growing apathy in France could yet produce a shock election result

In a scenario where Le Pen and the other far-right candidate, Éric Zemmour, score well in the first round, things could be “very complicated” for Macron because Zemmour supporters would back Le Pen in the second round, according to Bréhier. 

Haute even believes that the third-placed candidate, a veteran left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon, may even make it to the second round.

“It is realistic. He is a dynamic candidate able to gather people around him. The question is whether he is able to mobilise young people and working class neighbourhoods. It really depends on the abstention level,” said the professor.

Were Mélenchon to make the second round, most polls predict an wider margin of victory for Macron.

So who has managed to get re-elected?

YES. Charles de Gaulle. De Gaulle was elected President of France in 1958 and won reelection in 1965. He ultimately resigned in 1969 following a failed referendum on constitutional reform. 

NO. Alain Poher. Following de Gaulle’s resignation, the President of the Senate, Alain Poher, stepped in as interim leader. If any French President dies or resigns during their term, it is always the Senate leader who takes charge. That same year, Poher was defeated by Georges Pompidou in a presidential election. 

NO. Georges Pompidou. Pompidou, who had served as Prime Minister under De Gaulle, died of cancer in 1974 two years before the end of his first term. Poher once again stepped in as interim leader.

NO. Valéry Giscard d’Estaing. VGE was elected president in a hastily-organised election in 1974, but failed to get reelected at the 1981 election.

YES. François Mitterand. He won the 1981 election, but in 1986, his Parti Socialiste were hammered in legislative elections meaning that Mitterand had to appoint a centre-right Prime Minister, Jacques Chirac. However Mitterand won reelection in 1988, seeing off a challenge from Chirac. 

YES. Jacques Chirac.  Chirac finally had his day in 1995, winning his first presidential election. The conservatives were hamstrung by defeat at 1997 legislative elections and Chirac was forced to appoint a socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin. In 2002, Chirac won a crushing reelection victory against far-right leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen (Marine Le Pen’s openly racist, holocaust-denying father). 

NO. Nicolas Sarkozy. Another centre-right candidate, Sarko, won the 2007 presidential election, but lost a re-election bid in 2012.

NO. François Hollande won in 2012 but by 2017 his poll ratings were so poor that he decided not to stand again.

Emmanuel Macron won in 2017 with his new “neither left nor right” party, La République en Marche. LREM also swept to victory in the subsequent legislative elections, breaking years of dominance by France’s traditional left-right groupings.  

Member comments

  1. The article says that since the 1950s only George Bush Snr. and Donald Trump failed to win a second term in office in the United States. That is incorrect: Gerald Ford lost re-election in 1976 to Jimmy Carter, and Carter in turn was defeated by Ronald Reagan in 1980.

    Four US presidents have therefore not won a second term since the 1950s; and of the total 45 presidents prior to Biden, 10 were defeated for a second term and three others served one term by choice.

  2. French presidents don’t get re-elected for a second term because they weren’t truly qualified to be president in the first place.

    French voters are cursed with poor candidates that cannot stand the test of time.

    What is lacking in the French electoral system is a screening device that eliminates marginal politicians who burn out in the first two years of their first term.

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POLICE

France proposes getting rid of penalties for ‘minor’ speeding offences

The French government is considering changing speeding laws so that drivers will not lose points on their licence if they are caught going just a few kilometres over the speed limit.

France proposes getting rid of penalties for 'minor' speeding offences

France’s Interior Ministry is considering changing its current rules for minor speeding violations – proposing getting rid of the penalty for drivers who only violate the rule by going just a few kilometres over the speed limit.

The Ministry has not laid out a timeline for when this could come into effect, but they said they are currently in the preliminary stages of studying how the change could be carried out.

“The fine of course remains,” said the Interior Ministry to French daily Le Parisien.

That is to say you can still be fined for going five kilometres over the speed limit, but there might not be any more lost points for driving a couple kilometres over the posted limit. 

READ ALSO These are the offences that can cost you points on your driving licence

Of the 13 million speeding tickets issued each year in France, 58 percent are for speeding violations of less than 5 km per hour over the limit, with many coming from automated radar machines.

How does the current rule work?

The rule itself is already a bit flexible, depending on where the speeding violation occurs.

If the violation happens in an urban area or low-speed zone (under 50 km per hour limit), then it is considered a 4th class offence, which involves a fixed fine of €135. Drivers can also lose a point on their licences as a penalty for this offence. 

Whereas, on highways and high-speed roads, the consequences of speeding by 5 km per hour are less severe. The offence is only considered 3rd class, which means the fixed fine is €68. There is still the possibility of losing a point on your licence, however. 

How do people feel about this?

Pierre Chasseray, a representative from the organisation “40 Millions d’Automobilistes,” thinks the government should do away with all penalties for minor speeding offences, including fines. He told French daily Le Parisien that this is only a “first step.”

Meanwhile, others are concerned that the move to get rid of points-deductions could end up encouraging people to speed, as they’ll think there is no longer any consequence.

To avoid being accused of carelessness, France’s Interior Ministry is also promising to become “firmer” with regards to people who use other people’s licences in order to get out of losing points – say by sending their spouse’s or grandmother’s instead of their own after being caught speeding. The Interior Ministry plans to digitalise license and registration in an effort to combat this. 

Ultimately, if you are worried about running out of points on your licence, there are still ways to recover them.

You can recover your points after six months of driving without committing any other offences, and there are also awareness training courses that allow you to gain your points back. It should be noted, however, that these trainings typically cost between €150 and €250, and they do not allow you to regain more than four points.

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