ANALYSIS: So just what is going on with the French and a Brexit extension?
As the UK asks for (another) Brexit extension and the deadline of October 31st is galloping towards us, it may be the French that are the sticking point.
Speculation is growing that French president Emmanuel Macron - increasingly exasperated by the mess across the Channel - will not agree to another ling extension and will instead insist on a very short extension, possibly just 15 days.
It is now increasingly unlikely that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be able to get his Brexit deal passed in the House of Commons before next Thursday (October 31st), so if the EU refuse a Brexit extension then the UK could end up crashing out with no deal.
All 27 EU member states need to agree to any extension, so what France thinks is important. But will Macron really want to be cast as the bad guy in this whole sorry mess?
Political analyst Mujtaba Rahman, who has previously worked for both the European Commission and the UK's Treasury and is an adjunct professor at Sciences-Po in Paris, the London School of Economics and New York University's Stern Business School, says the situation is finely balanced.
In an incisive thread published on Twitter, he explains why the French position is complicated.
So what's going on with the French position on Brexit? Some thoughts after chats. Senior French officials say their position will remain unchanged: no long delay to Brexit without a clear reason – ie an election or referendum 1/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
A shorter extension – maybe 2 or 3 weeks - is possible to allow the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to get through the Commons. If WAB fails, and an election is called, then yet another extension could “reluctantly” be considered 2/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
Several factors complicate the French position. Firstly, Macron is in French overseas department of Reunion in the Indian ocean, where he has been greeted by demos & a general strike. His mind & body are in a different time zone. It’s difficult to get him to concentrate on Brexit
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
Macron is currently on the French island of Réunion. Photo: AFP
Secondly, he’s already in the middle of a row with his EU partners after he vetoed accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania. Can he really afford to pick another big quarrel with the rest of the EU? 4/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
Third, Macron is genuinely sick of Brexit. He wants this phase over so EU has space & energy for other stuff. He believes he was right in April & he's right now: another delay without clear commitment to an election would once again be wasted in further circular argument in UK 5/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
Fourth, Macron has decided that Boris Johnson is a good thing. Why? Not because he agrees with him on very much but because he sees him as the best way of getting Brexit done quickly. Macron swallows the Downing Street line that a short extension would concentrate minds 6/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
and a long extension would muddle them. A senior French source speaks of an “an alliance of convenience” between an “Odd Couple” 7/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
And so? Paris will continue to oppose a long extension until 31 Jan, unless an election is called. Johnson will not push for an election unless a long delay is granted by the EU. Therefore, deadlock 8/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
But can Macron finally afford to veto an A50 extension & plunge UK & EU into a No Deal crisis? Not really. But he DOES want a small victory/compromise (ie a shorter extension than the Benn Act) 9/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
He like the others wants to avoid another summit next week but senior French sources do not rule out the possibility that he will force one ENDS
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
For more Brexit analysis, you can follow Mujtaba Rahman on Twitter @Mij_Europe
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Speculation is growing that French president Emmanuel Macron - increasingly exasperated by the mess across the Channel - will not agree to another ling extension and will instead insist on a very short extension, possibly just 15 days.
It is now increasingly unlikely that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be able to get his Brexit deal passed in the House of Commons before next Thursday (October 31st), so if the EU refuse a Brexit extension then the UK could end up crashing out with no deal.
All 27 EU member states need to agree to any extension, so what France thinks is important. But will Macron really want to be cast as the bad guy in this whole sorry mess?
Political analyst Mujtaba Rahman, who has previously worked for both the European Commission and the UK's Treasury and is an adjunct professor at Sciences-Po in Paris, the London School of Economics and New York University's Stern Business School, says the situation is finely balanced.
In an incisive thread published on Twitter, he explains why the French position is complicated.
So what's going on with the French position on Brexit? Some thoughts after chats. Senior French officials say their position will remain unchanged: no long delay to Brexit without a clear reason – ie an election or referendum 1/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
A shorter extension – maybe 2 or 3 weeks - is possible to allow the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to get through the Commons. If WAB fails, and an election is called, then yet another extension could “reluctantly” be considered 2/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
Several factors complicate the French position. Firstly, Macron is in French overseas department of Reunion in the Indian ocean, where he has been greeted by demos & a general strike. His mind & body are in a different time zone. It’s difficult to get him to concentrate on Brexit
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
Macron is currently on the French island of Réunion. Photo: AFP
Secondly, he’s already in the middle of a row with his EU partners after he vetoed accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania. Can he really afford to pick another big quarrel with the rest of the EU? 4/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
Third, Macron is genuinely sick of Brexit. He wants this phase over so EU has space & energy for other stuff. He believes he was right in April & he's right now: another delay without clear commitment to an election would once again be wasted in further circular argument in UK 5/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
Fourth, Macron has decided that Boris Johnson is a good thing. Why? Not because he agrees with him on very much but because he sees him as the best way of getting Brexit done quickly. Macron swallows the Downing Street line that a short extension would concentrate minds 6/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
and a long extension would muddle them. A senior French source speaks of an “an alliance of convenience” between an “Odd Couple” 7/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
And so? Paris will continue to oppose a long extension until 31 Jan, unless an election is called. Johnson will not push for an election unless a long delay is granted by the EU. Therefore, deadlock 8/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
But can Macron finally afford to veto an A50 extension & plunge UK & EU into a No Deal crisis? Not really. But he DOES want a small victory/compromise (ie a shorter extension than the Benn Act) 9/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
He like the others wants to avoid another summit next week but senior French sources do not rule out the possibility that he will force one ENDS
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 23, 2019
For more Brexit analysis, you can follow Mujtaba Rahman on Twitter @Mij_Europe
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