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Weather forecast: What's on the horizon for France this summer?

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Weather forecast: What's on the horizon for France this summer?
Photo: AFP
16:23 CEST+02:00
It was a long, cold winter in France so the country certainly deserves a long, hot summer to make up for it. But will it get one?
Well, it's certainly good news for the north of the country which is expected to experience a hotter and drier summer than normal seasonal expectations, according to France's national weather agency Meteo France.
 
Th agency, which released their summer forecast for Europe on Wednesday said: "The northern half of France should experience warmer than normal conditions." 
 
The reason for this, they said, is down to "anticyclonic conditions" -- a weather phenomenon that sees a large-scale circulation of winds around a central region of high atmospheric pressure which can lead to clear skies and cooler, drier air.
 
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Holidaymakers enjoy the beach at Canet-en-Roussillon in southern France. Photo: AFP
 
Meteo France says that there is a 50 percent chance that these conditions "will dominate northern Europe" during July, August and September. 
 
And even if this phenomenon does not occur, Meteo France has said that there is a 40 percent chance of normal summer conditions and just a 10 percent chance of a "colder than normal" scenario.
 
The map below shows the agency's summer forecast for Europe.
 
Map: Meteo France
 
Meanwhile the south of France is not expected to have a warmer summer than usual but that may come as something of a relief to those living in the normally balmy area of the country, some parts of which experience forest fires during the hotter months of the year. 
 
And Meteo France has said that it "seems unlikely" that the season will be cooler than normal. 
 
Clisson, western France. Photo: AFP
 
Only Corsica, which "could experience wetter conditions than usual" could be in for an unusually damp summer, according to the national weather agency. 
 
According to French weather channel, La Chaine Meteo July will probably be the hottest month of the summer in France. 
 
So, will there be a heatwave?
 
With soil moisture high over large areas of the country after the high amounts of rainfall during spring, the risk of heatwaves is highly reduced, according to La Chaine Meteo. 
 
So to most people's relief at this point it seems unlikely that we'll be seeing a repeat of the heatwaves of 2017, which was one of three hottest summers on record in France since 1900. 
 
How reliable is this forecast?
 
The agency notes that beyond a period of 10-15 days, it can be difficult to make reliable weather predictions although it is possible to get an idea of what will happen based on trends. 
 
And it's worth noting that Météo France has said its forecasts are "better on temperature than on rainfall" so there might still be a few showers this summer. 
 
However forecaster and presenter at BFMTV, Guillaume Séchet previously told the TV news channel: "It's easier to take into account three whole months."
 
"It limits the prediction of anomalies, so we know if it will be a hot or cold summer, more dry or humid, but not if it will rain on July 14th at 2.30pm," he said.  
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