How the population of Paris will change and move by 2050

By the year 2050 the population of Paris will look a little a different to how it does now and it will also have shifted out of the centre of the city, according to a new study.

How the population of Paris will change and move by 2050
Photo: AFP
We might “always have Paris” as Humphrey Bogart once told us, but by 2050 it's probably going to look a little bit different… or at least its population will.
According to a new study published by French national statistics agency Insee, by the time we're half way through the 21st century, the number of people living in Paris will be about the same as it is now (2.23 million) but they will have aged and be living in different areas. 
The agency predicts that there will be a 25.5 percent drop in the number of people living in the four central districts – the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th arrondissements while the arrondissements around the edge of the city (all except the swanky 16th) will see a population increase. 
The 12th arrondissement, a district that has become increasingly residential over the years, will be among those with the highest growth, with a projected 14.5 percent rise in inhabitants. 
But as no doubt some will be relieved to know, not every arrondissement is set to change, with the 15th expected to remain the most populated. 
Photo: AFP
Aging population
INSEE estimates that in 2050, 20 percent of the population of Paris will be 65 or older, an increase of 30 percent compared to 2013.
While having an aging population is a national phenomenon, Paris is worse off than much of the country in terms of the facilities available for the elderly, particularly when it comes to nursing homes.
In fact, the reason behind carrying out the study was to work out how the city will need to change its services and infrastructure as a result of its population getting older.
“The amount of amenities reaches to little more than four places per 100 people,” said Insee. 
This rate is much lower than in the rest of France, where the average availability is ten beds per 100 people aged 75 or over, the study showed. 
Insee said that the country needs to double the number of available beds by 2050 in order to meet national demand, adding that the public authorities will need “to prioritise the development of assistive equipment for the home” in a bid to increase people's chances of staying in their own homes for longer.

These projections were calculated by taking into account fertility, mortality and migration levels however they Insee did not take into account influencing factors such as public policy that will also have an impact.
Another recent study (see link below) also shed light on ho the streets of Paris have changed in recent years.
While book shops and sex shops are disappearing rapidly they are being replaced by cafés and mini supermarkets, the study showed.

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Revealed: The fastest way to get across Paris

Car, moped, public transport, or electric bicycle - which means of transport is the quickest way to get across Paris?

Revealed: The fastest way to get across Paris

One intrepid reporter for French daily Le Parisien decided to find out. 

The challenge was simple. Which mode of transport would get the journalist from the heart of Fontenay-sous-Bois in the eastern suburbs to the newspaper’s office on Boulevard de Grenelle, west Paris, fastest?

Over four separate journeys, each one in the middle of rush hour, the electric bicycle was quickest and easiest. More expensive than conventional bikes, electric bikes do come with a government subsidy.

The journey was described as ‘pleasant and touristy’ on a dry but chilly morning going via dedicated cycle lanes that meant the dogged journalist avoided having to weave in and out of traffic.

It took, in total, 47 minutes from start to finish at an average speed of 19km/h, on a trip described as “comfortable” but with a caveat for bad weather. The cost was a few centimes for charging up the bike.

In comparison, a car journey between the same points took 1 hour 27 minutes – a journey not helped by a broken-down vehicle. Even accounting for that, according to the reporter’s traffic app, the journey should – going via part of the capital’s southern ringroad – have taken about 1 hr 12.

Average speed in the car was 15km/h, and it cost about €2.85 in diesel – plus parking.

A “chaotic and stressful” moped trip took 1 hour 3 minutes, and cost €1.30 in unleaded petrol.

Public transport – the RER and Metro combined via RER A to Charles-de-Gaulle-Étoile then Metro line 6 to the station Bir-Hakeim – took 50 minutes door to door, including a 10-minute walk and cost €2.80. The journey was described as “tiring”.

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