1. Because German Chancellor Angela Merkel is not there…Yes, the German team's lucky mascot will not be watching in Marseille. Germany pretty much always win when they play in front of Frau Merkel. But they will be lost without her tonight.
2. Because France have Dmitri Payet – probably the most consistently impressive player of the whole tournament. And he plays for France and he scores goals. Great goals!
3. And France have Antoine Griezmann and he likes to score too. In fact he's the top scorer in the tournament.
4. Oh and Olivier Giroud. Maligned by many up until now, Giroud has bagged three goals.
5. Because Germany have Thomas Muller. That's normally a reason why the Germans would win, but the 2016 Thomas Muller is a pale impression of 2014 Thomas Muller. For a start he can't score.
6. Because the Germans are missing penalties… Germans never miss penalties, but in the last round they missed three out of five against Italy. There's hope for the French should the match go to the wire.
7. Because Germany are missing Mats Hummels. He's been a tower of strength, a human Berlin Wall, but he is suspended. So France will win.
7a. Because this road sign has predicted the score.
8. In fact Germany are missing lots and lots of good players – Reus and Gundogan never made it to France. Now Hummels, Khedira and Gomez are all injured.
9. Because the Seven Gods of Westeros say it will happen. Well not quite but Goldman Sachs bank did. In a pre-tournament study the bank rated France as having 23 percent chance of winning Euro2016 compared to Germany on 20 percent. No point even playing tonight then for Germany.
10. Because France want revenge. Players and coaches don't like talking about revenge, but we all know it gives you added motivation. France lost to Germany in the last World Cup without much of a fight. They want revenge tonight and they will get it.
11. Because France are at home. And when France play at home they generally win. See the 1998 World Cup and 1984 European Championships, both of which were won by France on home soil.
12. Because French players love scoring against goalkeeper Manuel Neuer. Oliver Giroud (three times no less) Paul Pogba and Antoine Griezmann have all scored against the German this year. They just can't get enough.
13. Because the French really, really, really want to win. And that does matter. The Germans won the World Cup two years ago, so they won't be that bothered, because Germans aren't that professional are they? No, but seriously, the French want this badly…
14. Because it feels it's already written. After the Paris terror attacks of 2015, France has been desperate to relieve the pressure and tension around the country. It feels like France winning Euro 2016 is the way to do it. It feels inevitable.