A poll by CSA published today in 20 Minutes asks Socialist supporters which of the candidates they favour. Hollande scores 41% with Aubry just behind on 37%. The next closest candidate is Ségolène Royal with just 9%. Amongst all voters it’s Aubry who edges ahead of Hollande with 35% to 34%.
François Hollande has already announced he will stand in the elections to choose the Socialist Party candidate for the 2012 presidential election. Martine Aubry is expected to announce next week. The race was shaken up by the recent arrest in New York of former front-runner Dominique Strauss-Kahn in May.
The Socialist primaries will take place in October, with first round of voting on the 9th. If there is no candidate with over 50% of the vote, the election will go to a second round on the 16th. Candidates have to declare their intention to run by 13th July.
The poll also looks at the possible results of the Presidential election and continues to put Hollande ahead of President Sarkozy by 27% to 23% in the first round. A Sarkozy-Aubry race would see both candidates getting 23% if the election was held today.
In both scenarios, the vote for Front National leader Marine Le Pen has fallen to third place with 16%. This would rule out the chance of a final run-off between her and one of the major parties, as happened between her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen and Jacques Chirac in 2002.
Former housing minister and leader of the Christian Democratic Party, Christine Boutin, announced her intention to stand in the race yesterday. In her statement, she said she felt “obliged” to stand and that she wanted a more “humanist” politics.
There is just under a year to go until the first round of voting on 22nd April.