Published: 14 Aug 2012 10:04 GMT+02:00 | Print version
Updated: 14 Aug 2012 10:04 GMT+02:00
France's economy managed zero growth in the second quarter of 2012, data showed Tuesday, beating expectations it would begin a slide into recession.
In its first flash estimate for the second quarter, the national statistics institute INSEE said that French gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged.
That confounded expectations by many economists including the Bank of France that slowdown plaguing much of the eurozone would push France towards
recession.
French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici called the result "very weak" but held to the government's forecast for 0.3 percent growth in 2012.
Moscovici said on Europe 1 radio that zero growth "wasn't great" but "at the same time France is not in recession" unlike "most of our partners" in the
EU such as Spain, Italy and Britain.
A recession is commonly defined by economists as two consecutive quarters of contracting activity.
However France once again did less well than its principal partner, Germany, which posted 0.3 percent growth in the second quarter, according to
official data also published on Tuesday.
Eurostat was to later release its flash second quarter estimate for the eurozone, which posted flat growth in the first quarter.
France emerged from its last recession in the spring of 2009 but the economy has since struggled to gain momentum as the eurozone debt crisis has intensified, posting zero growth for the last three quarters.
Uncertainty over the fate of the euro and related problems in credit markets have resulted in investors either cancelling or delaying major spending decisions, with a Greek debt writedown and concern over Spanish banks hitting sentiment in the second quarter.
Meanwhile consumers have been hit as governments cut spending and raise taxes to reduce the deficits and debt that are behind the eurozone crisis.
The French construction and automobile industries have been hit particularly hard. New housing starts in the second quarter were 14 percent below 2011 levels while July car sales were down 7.0 percent on a year earlier.
With these job-intensive sectors struggling, unemployment has spiked.
Latest figures put the jobless total at nearly 10 percent of the workforce with a further 5.0 percent working fewer hours than they would like.
Given the deepening of the eurozone crisis in the second quarter "flat GDP shows resilience in the second quarter," said Berenberg Bank Senior Economist Christian Schulz.
"Despite the apparent resilience of French GDP, some worrying trends persist," he added, however.
He noted France is continuing to lose competitiveness to southern eurozone countries going through difficult adjustments, with imports continuing to outpace exports and taking the trade deficit to record highs.
The trade deficit took 0.5 percent off France's growth in the second quarter, after 0.1 percent in the first quarter.
Moreover France has yet to begin serious austerity, with government spending continuing to support the economy, he noted.
That poses a challenge to France's new Socialist government.
Elected in May on a jobs and growth ticket, President Francois Hollande faces an increasingly tough battle to deliver while simultaneously meeting a commitment to reduce France's budget deficit from around 4.5 percent of GDP this year to the EU limit of 3.0 percent by the end of 2013.
While Moscovici stuck to the government's latest forecasts of 0.3 percent growth in 2012 and 1.2 percent in 2013, they are considered optimistic by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of France.
Slower growth would force the government to make greater cuts or raise more taxes to meet its deficit targets.
The French government is planning a controversial change in the law to allow more university courses to be taught entirely in English, in a bid to attract foreign students. Author Frederic Werst, one of a group of writers against the project tells The Local why the idea is "deluded". READ () »
A highly contentious proposal to allow more courses at French universities to be taught in English will be discussed in the French parliament today as the minister behind the plan slams the “hypocrisy” of those opposing it. READ () »
French prosecutors investigating corruption are set to decide this week whether to charge IMF chief Christine Lagarde over her handling of a row that resulted in a €400 million payout being paid to disgraced businessman Bernard Tapie. READ () »
Notre Dame cathedral in the heart of Paris had to be evacuated on Tuesday when 78-year-old writer and far-right figure Dominique Venner, a firm opponent of gay marriage, shot himself in the head by the church's altar. READ () »
High ranking ministers in the French government can expect a grilling in the coming days as an investigation into a tax fraud scandal got underway on Tuesday. The probe was set up after the former budget minister admitted having a secret bank account. READ () »
Hopes that France's long, hard winter would be followed by a warm, sunny spring have been well and truly washed out after a weekend of heavy rain and storms. The country's weather agency saying more bad weather is on the way. READ () »
The French Interior Minister reassured the public on Tuesday that a global operation involving French and international police was underway to track down fugitive Redoine Faid, who remains at large after blasting his way out of prison in April. READ () »
VIDEO: French police have charged a minibus driver carrying a group of Marseille football supporters who were involved in a mass brawl with fans of fierce rivals Lyon at a motorway toll plaza in the south of France at the weekend. READ () »
Hundreds of French Facebook users bared all this week in a protest against the social media site’s strict censorship of nude photos. But the “Day of Nude” protest was cut short early when Facebook's photo police took swift action. READ () »
The French government may still be celebrating the victory of seeing its divisive gay marriage bill finally signed into law but the battle over the issue of same-sex unions in France now looks set to move from a national to a local level. READ () »
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
More news from Sweden at thelocal.se
More news from Germany at thelocal.de
More news from Switzerland at thelocal.ch
Your comments about this article:
The comments below have not been moderated in advance and are not produced by The Local unless clearly stated. Readers are responsible for the content of their own comments. Comments that breach our terms and conditions will be removed.